442 Bet Club: For the Love of the Game, Episode 9

 

Club football returns this weekend after a one-week break owing to the international window being activated the previous week. On this tangent we deliver the latest episode of ‘the 442 Bet Club; For the Love of the Game’; a weekly series put together by 442gh.com and our partners Betway.com.gh

Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United are all expected to drop points according to our betting expert but before we proceed, let’s serve this notice that 442gh.com and our partner Betway Ghana fully advocate Responsible Gambling. Always remember that persons below 18 years are not allowed to bet.

Now, kindly enjoy the read as we serve you betting tips on football matches this weekend.

Watford vs Liverpool, Saturday

Liverpool are likely to drop points against Watford for two main reasons; The Claudio Ranieri bounce factor and Jurgen Klopp’s recent record with the Reds playing the early kick-off on a Saturday.

One thing you can guarantee with appointing Ranieri is a positive mentality and an ability for players to increase their work-rate for him almost instantly. He has the bounce factor as seen by the fact he’s only lost one of his last eight games when taking charge of a team for the first time, including winning both his first matches in charge of Leicester (4-2 over Sunderland) and Fulham (3-2 over Southampton).

Meanwhile, Liverpool have only won two of their last six early Saturday kick-offs. That may not sound too catastrophic, but all those fixtures came against teams that Liverpool were heavy favorites to beat.

In that run, they drew with Everton, Newcastle and Brighton while losing 3-1 at Leicester City. Throw in the likely absence of Alisson in goal due to his international commitments with Brazil – they have suffered shock defeats to Aston Villa (7-2) and Brighton (1-0) when he’s been missing before – then.

In this case a Watford win/draw looks very reasonable.

Aston Villa vs Wolves, Saturday

Both teams are trending upwards in terms of their results but creating good quality chances and taking them seems to be an issue for both looking at their expected goals data, especially for Wolves. Despite winning two of their last three matches, they haven’t posted an expected goals figure above 1.00, which suggests a slight over-performance.

Since switching to a back three and encouraging their wing-backs in Matt Targett and Matty Cash to play more aggressively, Villa’s corner count is seeing a sharp increase. In their last four fixtures against tough opponents like Tottenham, Manchester United, Everton and Chelsea, they have averaged 7.25 corners per 90 minutes. Wolves are also averaging 5.5 corners against since Bruno Lage took charge. The tip is on Villa not to lose this game and the fixture producing 9 or more corner kicks.

Leicester vs Manchester United, Saturday

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It’s a make or break period for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. And with Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea all to come in the next 45 days, this fixture is arguably the easiest Premier League opponent they’ll face in the next month or so based upon Leicester’s current form. Just one clean sheet in 13 games doesn’t read well for Brendan Rodgers, whose side are on a run of four games without a win.

Despite being favorites, we still feel the need not to back Manchester United. They undoubtedly have the attacking firepower to take the game away from Leicester at any point but go into battle here with a weakened defence as Harry Magure and Raphael Varane are both missing. That will give Leicester plenty of hope.

In the last five matches where Victor Lindelof and Eric Bailly have both started, United are winless. The best bet here is backing both teams to be on the score sheet.

Brentford vs Chelsea, Saturday

Arsenal, Liverpool and West Ham have all been buzzed by Brentford – now it could be Chelsea’s turn.

Brentford’s process in terms of their performance metrics certainly backs up that taking 12 points from their opening seven Premier League matches is no fluke. The start they have made is pretty phenomenal. Only six newly promoted sides in Premier League history have taken more points at this stage, and it’s the most won after seven games since Hull City’s fast start in 2008. I covered the Bees’ clash with West Ham and their first 30 minutes was the most complete performance I’ve ever seen from a newly promoted team. They made the Hammers – a team that finished sixth last season – look like relegation candidates.

Chelsea’s defensive process remains strong but certainly it’s not at the levels of last season. Plus missing out on Antonio Rudiger (injury) and Thiago Silva for this one will certainly have a toll on Chelsea’s defensive game. Both teams netting in this game looks more likely.

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